8casinocom| Worries about overcapacity in the ethylene glycol industry: Supply and demand are expected to be removed from warehouses in April, and pressure is expected to continue in May

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April 20248casinocomThe supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be 1.45 million tons8casinocomThe output of polyester is 6 million tons, the demand is about 2.1 million tons, and the difference between supply and demand is about-150000 tons. Although the capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol industry is low, the future supply and demand pattern is good, and the short-term downside space is expected to be limited.

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* in April this year, the maintenance plan at the supply side of ethylene glycol is obvious, but the new production capacity and stock capacity are under great pressure * * in April this year, a number of units at the supply side of ethylene glycol are planned to be overhauled, so the supply is expected to decrease. At present, the capacity base of domestic ethylene glycol units is stable at 2844.8casinocom.10 million tons, of which the production capacity of ethylene glycol from syngas is 10.2 million tons, and that of non-syngas units is 1824.8casinocom.10,000 tons. However, despite the maintenance plan, the pressure on new production capacity and stock capacity is still great. According to statistics, the average weekly output of ethylene glycol so far from the beginning of the year is 370000 tons, an increase of 27.5% over the same period last year. The output in March reached 1.6 million tons, a new record high. Although the utilization rate of domestic capacity in the first quarter is only 62.49%, considering the large capacity base of stock, the room for improvement of ethylene glycol production is still large, so the domestic pressure can not be ignored. Monthly production of ethylene glycol is expected to be about 1.45 million tons in April, which is significantly lower than the previous month, but still higher than the same period last year. * Import dependence has declined, but imports are expected to pick up in April * under the domestic substitution process, the import dependence of ethylene glycol has decreased. According to statistics, the total import volume from January to March in 2024 is 1.37 million tons, while domestic production continues to rise, resulting in the growth and decline of imports and domestic production, and the degree of import dependence in 2024 has dropped sharply to about 21%. However, judging from the situation in April, with the exception of the 828000-ton plant in South Asia, the rest of the device was basically normal, the previous centralized maintenance of the Saudi plant was basically completed, and most of the devices were restarted, and imports are expected to pick up further in April, rising to about 500000 tons. * the high polyester load is maintained and the terminal rigid demand is temporarily stable * * in the first quarter of 2024, the domestic polyester industry increased production capacity by 1.53 million tons, down 47.24% from the same period last year. The overall production speed of polyester filament has slowed down, and the new production capacity is mainly concentrated in polyester bottle chips. At present, the new polyester plant has been steadily put into production, and the output will increase synchronously. Under the support of seasonal demand in the traditional peak season, the polyester operating rate rebounded to about 90%, but compared with last year, the overall increment was limited, lower than market expectations. In the later stage, the polyester production continues but the speed or slows down, the expected high load can be maintained, and the terminal demand toughness can be maintained. * the difference between supply and demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be-150000 tons in April, which is expected to be-150000 tons in April. The total supply is expected to be around 145 + 500000 tons, while polyester production is 6 million tons, equivalent to about 2 million tons of ethylene glycol demand, and about 100000 tons in other areas, with a total demand of about 2.1 million tons. However, the weak performance of supply and demand of ethylene glycol is mainly due to concerns about the future industrial structure. At present, the supply balance of ethylene glycol is maintained by low operating rate. at present, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol is the lowest capacity utilization of the whole polyester industry chain, which makes the return elasticity of ethylene glycol supply larger. The price of ethylene glycol is under pressure in the future, but the short-term falling space is limited * * in the future, under the logic of increased supply pressure in the future, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure. However, supply and demand are expected to maintain the pattern of removing storage in May, several maintenance equipment with larger production capacity have not been restarted temporarily, polyester production has maintained a high base difference in April, there is still a trend of increasing in May, and the pattern of supply and demand is still good. It is expected that the downward space for ethylene glycol is limited in the short term.