crashmindovermutantpc|有色金属24Q1基金持仓报告：机构高偏好配置持续加强 经济复苏+降息周期下四赛道为主线

Description of target pool selection: we take CITIC Nonferrous Metals, Shenwan Nonferrous Metals, Yangtze River Metal Materials and Mining Index constituent stocks as the benchmark.CrashmindovermutantpcRemove some stocks with low correlation between main business and non-ferrous metals (ST Dinglong, * ST Garden City, Wan Bond, Ruixin Technology, etc.), and finally form the core target pool of non-ferrous metals. Fund classification: the active fund selection method in this model is Wind open-end fund-equity fund (general stock) + mixed fund (partial stock mixed + flexible allocation); the passive fund selection method is Wind open-end fund + closed-end fund-equity fund (passive index + enhanced index) + mixed fund (balanced mixed + partial debt mixed) The shareholding data of equity funds can be obtained by adding active and passive funds. Institutional position preference continues to maintain a high level (active fund overallocation 2Crashmindovermutantpc.21%). Driven by many factors, such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the increase in internal and external demand under economic recovery, and the widening gap between supply and demand under supply disturbance, the prices of precious metals, industrial metals and other commodities have risen steadily, and the industry has been verified by the market. According to Wind data, 2024Q1 active fund shares in the non-ferrous metals sector accounted for 5.49% of the total market value of active funds, up 1.39% from 2023Q4, 2.21% over 2023Q4, and 1.13% higher than 2023Q4. At the same time, the total market value of the non-ferrous metals sector held by the active + passive fund 24Q1 reached 128.274 billion yuan, accounting for 4.87% of the total shares held by the fund, with an overallotment ratio of 1.60%. We believe that the 2024Q1 institutions of the non-ferrous metals sector continue to maintain an over-allocation ratio of 2.21%, thanks to multiple factors such as the clear trend of the medium-and long-term supply and demand pattern of the industry and the approach of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, corporate fundamentals have been in a state of high prosperity for a long time, and the sector has a significant comparative advantage corresponding to the current economic / international situation. Fund subdivision track allocation focuses on two main lines-1. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates & the precious metal plate under the nature of risk aversion; 2. Supply disturbance or demand recovery under the widening gap between supply and demand, commodity prices have upward elasticity of the subdivision of the track, such as copper, aluminum, tin, tungsten and so on. At the individual stock level, the 10 stocks with the highest proportion of shares held by 2024Q1 active funds are Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Yintai Gold, Shenhuo, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Yunnan Aluminum, Chinalco, Huayou Cobalt and China Mineral Resources. The top 10 companies with active fund inflows (plus positions) are Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, China Gold, Shenhuo shares, Aluminum of China, Gold Integrity, Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Yunnan Aluminum shares, and China Mineral Resources. Chong Cang and Jiakang companies focus on the attributes of scarce resources, continuous improvement of mine-end production capacity, high-quality traditional track leaders with horizontal and vertical extension, or new material targets with technological monopoly power. Investment advice: we believe that the non-ferrous metals sector will continue to be the preferred sector of institutional allocation (super-matching represents preference) in the context of the continuous improvement of supply and demand, the approaching cycle of Fed interest rate cuts, and the intensification of global geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, taking into account the steady rise in commodity prices, corporate performance is expected to achieve a substantial upward revision, in this case the plate valuation will be effectively digested with the increase in corporate earnings expectations. As of April 30, 2024, the PE-TTM of Citic, Shenwan and Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Index reached 23.02x/20.48x/19.08x respectively, ranking in the 25% quartile of 15% in the past 10 years, and the plate continues to have high configuration value. Core investment / focus: (1) interest rate cuts are expected to be re-established, superimposing precious metal plates with risk aversion under geopolitical conflicts-gold: Shandong gold, Chifeng gold, Hunan gold, Yintai gold, etc. Silver: Shengda Resources, Societe Generale Silver (2) under the economic recovery, the internal and external demand resonates upward, and the commodity end price rises steadily-- copper: Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, Western Mining, etc.; aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum shares, Shenhuo shares, etc.; (3) growth attributes of high-tech barriers, new materials track and related targets-- new military materials: Huaqin Technology, Western Materials, Hangya Technology, Tunan shares. (4) the disturbance on the supply side gradually fades, and there is a rebound track with inflection point change on the demand side (concern)-Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry and so on. Risk hints: the risk of higher-than-expected interest rate hikes in the United States, overseas geopolitical risks, policy change risks, and abnormal volatility in commodity prices. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.