6djackpotprizetoday|酒鬼酒(000799)：短期经营业绩承压 静待需求恢复

Investment points FY23/23Q4/24Q1 achieves revenue 286djackpotprizetoday.30 / 6.87 Compact $494 million6djackpotprizetodayCompared with the same period last year, the year-on-year-on-year-30.14% Universe 21.72% Universe 48.80%; realized the net profit of 5.48% Universe 0.69 Maple 0.73 million Yuan, compared with the same period last year-47.77% Universe 10.12% picks 75.56%. Channel destocking is still going on, and short-term liquor sales are under pressure for 23 years.6djackpotprizetodayYear-on-year revenue from his business-30.12% Universe 34.78% to 2.821 billion yuan. Affected by the sub-high-end overall environment, the company's liquor products are still in the channel cleaning stage. From a product point of view, the income of the internal reference / alcoholic / Xiangquan / other series is RMB 7.15 million / 16.47 / 0.71, respectively, which is-38.21% /-27.45% /-68.03% compared with the same period last year. The corresponding sales are-32.69%, 17.62%, 74.65% /-9.34%, and-8.19% /-11.92% and 26.12%, 10.13%, respectively. The significant decline in internal ginseng sales was mainly due to the influence of goods control. the excellent performance of the relatively low-cost Hongtan / internal products in the alcoholic series led to a decline in tonnage prices. In 23 years, the number of opening bottles of Hongtan 18 increased by 70% / the number of banquets increased by 40%. Facing the challenge of the external environment, the core of the company's marketing in the first quarter is to firmly promote the transformation of the marketing model, restore the prices of the main products, repair channel profit confidence, and focus on the internal reference of the core product + Hongtan. 24Q1's revenue is still under pressure, we believe that the main reason is that the willingness to withdraw money from the channel is cautious + the provincial internal reference Chen version is still in the market introduction stage + Xiangquan sales are restricted by production capacity. Focus on Hunan market, create model market outside the province 1) Sub-region: Hunan business department is set up in the province, display network construction and banquet activities are carried out, and the market coverage rate at the county level in the province is 95% and 89%. Outside the province, we continue to promote 22 model markets to speed up the cultivation of consumers. 2) Sub-channel: the 23-year distribution / direct sales model achieves revenue of RMB 2.798 billion respectively, which is 29.48% higher than that of the same period last year. The number of dealers in 23 years + 188 to 16djackpotprizetoday, 774, of which the number of dealers in North China / East China / South China / Central China / other regions increased by a net increase of 92max 109Universe 5 / 109Universe 127. The company continues to expand the coverage of dealers, focusing on promoting the core customer operation and terminal development of the first 15 model markets. It has achieved 97% coverage of provincial markets / 73% coverage of municipal markets. In 2023, there were 1381 signed dealers, a total of 393 specialty stores, and more than 30, 000 core terminals (24Q2 plans to add more than 6000 high-quality terminals). Profitability is under short-term pressure, and fee reform is still under way. 1) profit side: the company's FY23/24Q1 gross profit margin is 78.35% FY23/24Q1 71.08%, year-on-year-1.29 /-10.46pct, and net profit rate is 19.36%, 14.86%,-6.53 /-16.26pct respectively. 2) expense side: the company's FY23/24Q1 sales expense rates are 32.22%, 33.93%, 7.90pct, and management expenses are 5.85% / 7.97%, + 1.53 / + 4.34pct respectively, compared with the same period last year. Through the fee reform, the proportion of consumer marketing expenses in 23 years was + 10% compared with the same period last year, the number of effective core terminals was + 19% compared with the same period last year, and the number of bottles to be opened / the amount of wine to be replaced by the box lid / the number of banquets compared with the same period last year + 91% Universe 53% Universe 41%. 3) advance payment: the contract debt of 24Q1 Company is 235 million yuan, a decrease of 50 million yuan compared with the previous month. 24Q1 sales received-58.14% to 318 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and net operating cash flow ranged from-259.83% to-265 million yuan. After 23 years of strategic expense reform in earnings forecast and valuation, the company's business activities have been carried out normally, market expansion / brand promotion / channel intensive cultivation / capacity construction has progressed steadily, we expect the mobile sales of 24Q1 products to accelerate, and the mobile pin end will perform better than the cash back end, and the internal ginseng / alcoholic business is expected to improve in the second quarter. In the future, the company will balance the payback and the price order, guarantee the price when promoting the payback, and take into account short-term sales while adhering to the long-term goal. We expect the company's revenue to grow by 3.54%, 6.45% and 12.82% in 2024 to 2026, and the return net profit to grow by-5.16%, 12.32% and 20.95% respectively. The PE is 1.60,1.80,2.17 yuan respectively, and the 24-year EPS corresponds to 31.95 times. Catalyst: the recovery of liquor demand is higher than expected; a number of reform dividends are released; the cultivation of fragrant consumption atmosphere is effective; the acceleration of mobile sales of large single items in peak season suggests that market expansion is blocked and economic recovery is not as expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.