mobilebingo| BlackRock Fund Bi Kai: Now is a good time to lay out high-quality assets at a low level
◎ reporter Wang Peng
Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has shown a volatile trend, and active equity investment is facing a greater test. Standing at the current time, how do you view the next stage of market investment opportunities? Which areas have configuration value? Bi Kai, a proposed mixed fund manager for BlackRock Outstanding Ocean Airlines, said that the valuations of A-share and H-share listed companies are generally in a low position and it is a good time to allocate high-quality assets at a low level. Specifically, the high-quality enterprises with low dependence on the macroeconomic environment, strong ability to create cash flow and reasonable valuation should be paid attention to.
Bikai has 12 years of research experience and 5 years of investment management experience, he summarized his investment style as price growth, namely growth at reasonable price (GARP). As the name implies, the investment philosophy behind GARP is to buy high-quality enterprises with clear competitive advantages and strong ability to create cash flow at attractive prices. In addition, from the investment level,MobilebingoI ask myself not to blindly chase hot spots and keep rational thinking. From the perspective of historical performance, this style makes me a player who is relatively good at the bottom layout. " Bikai said.
Specific to the investment implementation level, Bickay adopts a quasi-quantitative approach, by tracking a large number of industry data to explore industries with investment opportunities, and then go deep into these industries, using the fundamental analysis framework to select individual stocks. Take the meso-industry research as the cornerstone, comply with the economic cycle to configure the industry, select enterprises with stable competitive advantages, and focus on cross-industry value comparison.
"at the level of industry allocation, I pay more attention to the position of industry cycle, capital expenditure cycle and inventory cycle, actively layout industries with favorable cycle trend, and pay more attention to the reasonable dispersion of industry allocation. At the level of individual stock selection, I attach equal importance to the analysis of investment risks and investment opportunities, with particular emphasis on the ability of enterprises to create sustainable free cash flow, focusing on understanding what competitive advantages the company has in the industry. " Bikai said.
Judging from the past investment experience, Bikai is good at accurately grasping the cyclical opportunities of industrial development through reverse layout. In Bikai's view, the main risk of reverse layout is to fall into the value trap. Therefore, an important premise of accurate reverse layout is a detailed analysis of the characteristics, competition pattern, changing law and trend of the relationship between supply and demand of the invested industry.
"to do a good job of reverse investment, you need to torture your soul repeatedly, for example, which aspects of judgment are different from the consensus of the market, and is there a more sufficient basis for your own judgment? Reverse investment needs to judge the value bottom line of listed companies according to the limit thinking, and retain a relatively abundant margin of safety. In addition, we should leave leeway in Jiancang, not too left, and when the buying logic is no longer established, we should follow discipline and withdraw decisively. " Bikai said.
Standing at the current point of time, Bi Kai said that from the broad market investment environment, the policy support to the economy is strengthening, the degree of care for the capital market is also increasing, and the downside risk of the stock market is relatively limited. From the overall situation of the manufacturing industry, the upward pressure on the inventory of finished goods has eased, and the profits of industrial enterprises have hit bottom and rebounded.
"overall, we believe that the momentum of economic growth in the first quarter of 2024 is better than that in the fourth quarter of 2023, and this marginal improvement needs to be further observed in the second quarter of 2024. At this stage, priority should be given to those high-quality enterprises that are not dependent on the macroeconomic environment, have a strong ability to create cash flow and have a reasonable valuation. " Bikai said.
Specifically, Bikai said that in 2024, he will focus on three investment directions: first, high-quality stocks with clear competitive advantages, strong ability to create cash flow and sustainable dividend sharing. The premise of continuous dividend is that it can generate sustained operating cash flow. In addition to excellent texture, this kind of enterprises can better adapt to the current lower risk preference level. Second, the leading companies with cost advantages in industries where supply expansion has slowed down significantly and the pressure on supply and demand has eased. These companies can share the dividend of a gradual rebound in profit margins after a balance between supply and demand in the future. Third, artificial intelligence and other technical fields. Pay attention to the new business models and new product forms accompanied by technological development, and such companies are expected to usher in new growth in the Chinese market.