wynnslots|ICE加拿大油菜籽期货连涨三天：7月期约收高10.1加元，报收647.00加元/吨
Newsletter summary
Canadian rapeseed futures rose for the third day in a row, supported by Chicago soybeans and soybean meal, and European rapeseed futures. The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is good, and the supply of rapeseed oil is abundant but the demand is good. Focus on the opening probability and inventory of rapeseed on Monday.
Text of news flash
The Canadian rapeseed futures market rose continuously, supported by a rise in the international market and a rebound in demand. On Friday, the rapeseed futures market of the Canadian Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ushered in a third consecutive day of gains, of which the benchmark contract rose by 1%.Wynnslots.6%. The rise in Chicago soybean and soybean meal markets and the rise in European rapeseed futures played a positive role in promoting the rise. By the end of the day, rapeseed futures had risen between C $3.40 and C $10.1, with the July contract closing at C $647.00 a tonne, the November contract up C $8.7 at C $660.8 a tonne, and the January contract up C $7.9 at C $668.4 a tonne.
In the rapeseed meal market, with the prominent price advantage of Brazilian soybeans and the arrival of the peak export season, the export share of American beans has been squeezed. In addition, the soybean planting rate in the United States reached 18%, exceeding market expectations, and the overall good weather conditions put pressure on the market. However, torrential rains in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul caused about 1/4 of soybeans to be harvested in time, deteriorating the harvest outlook, supporting market prices for US beans and boosting domestic meal prices. The operating rate of oil plants in the domestic market remains high, and the pressure on the output of rapeseed meal still exists. Nevertheless, as temperatures rise, aquaculture is gradually starting and demand is gradually improving. In the soybean meal market, due to the end of soybean harvest in Brazil, the increase in soybean arrival in Hong Kong, and the gradual easing of market supply, the arrival volume in May and June may exceed 10 million tons, the pressure on the supply side has increased significantly, and soybean meal stocks have risen continuously, limiting market prices. Today, the rapeseed meal market fluctuated upward after the opening, investors need to be cautious to catch up.
For the rapeseed market, the "late spring cold" in the main rapeseed producing areas in Europe has affected about half of the acreage, which may affect rapeseed production in European producing areas. Although consultancy Strategie Grains maintains its forecast of 18.1 million tonnes of rapeseed production in the EU this year, the new forecast is still 9 per cent lower than last year's 19.9 million tonnes. Statistics Canada will release stock estimates of major field crops as of March 31, 2024 on May 7. Market analysts generally expect Canadian rapeseed stocks to reach 8.3 million tons, up from 7.033 million tons in the same period last year, with estimates in the range of 770-9.2 million tons. The opening rate of domestic oil plants remains high, the output pressure of rapeseed oil remains the same, at the same time, the direct import of rapeseed oil is also increasing, and the market supply is adequate. However, the demand side is still in the traditional off-season and the supply is relatively abundant. After the consumption during the May Day holiday, there is a short-term replenishment demand in the terminal market, and the short-term demand has improved. On the disk, driven by the strength of spot prices, the futures price of rapeseed oil shows an upward trend, and the price difference between vegetable browns widens, and investors can continue to hold it.
Next, the market will focus on Monday.WynnslotsMy agricultural products net rapeseed opening probability and regional rapeseed meal inventory data.
